Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of the Premier League weekend and tips up a 20/1 treble.
There are plenty of ways to attack the fouls markets but, as ever, match-ups are where the real value tends to live.
Jayden Bogle to commit two or more fouls at 5/4 with Sky Bet looks a standout play. When assessing these markets, I'm always keen to marry a player's baseline numbers with the specific opponent he's likely to face. Bogle already ticks plenty of boxes on his own. He's an aggressive, all-action wing-back who plays on the edge defensively, and that naturally lends itself to foul involvement.
He's committed at least one foul in each of his last 12 starts, averaging 1.9 fouls per 90 minutes, so we're already knocking right on the door of that 2+ line just from his raw data.
If Bogle lines up against Jaidon Anthony, the dynamic shifts even further in our favour. Anthony averages 1.6 fouls drawn per game this season, which is a strong return and exactly the kind of profile we want to target when hunting bets in this type of scenario.
This contest has the look of a game that could fall firmly into the 'cagey' category. Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet makes plenty of appeal.
With the added advantage of playing before Tottenham in the relegation scrap, there's a clear opportunity for West Ham to get something on the board and apply pressure. In these situations, the mindset often shifts - it's less about expansive football and more about control, discipline and avoiding mistakes. A point wouldn't be a bad result, and that naturally leans towards a lower-risk, lower-tempo approach.
And we've seen the evidence of that in their recent away numbers. Four of West Ham's last five games on the road have gone under 2.5 goals, which paints a picture of a team setting up to stay in matches rather than open them up.
Yankuba Minteh was moved on by Newcastle United as part of their financial balancing act, a decision that with hindsight looks increasingly questionable given how he's developed into a top-level Premier League attacker. You can throw Elliot Anderson into that bracket too - another one that slipped through their fingers. It's not a great look for the club.
But focusing on Minteh, there's a noticeable edge to his game when he faces his former club. This is where the eye test comes in alongside the data. He looks like a player with a point to prove. He's scored twice in his last three appearances against Newcastle, which isn't a huge sample size, but it does underline that he relishes this fixture.
The 11/2 with Sky Bet on him to score in a Brighton win makes appeal.
Granit Xhaka has evolved into something of a wily operator in midfield. He knows exactly how to use his body, when to invite contact and how to turn pressure into fouls in his favour. It's a bit of an underrated part of his game but one that consistently shows up when you dig into the fouls-won data. He can be backed at 10/11 with Sky Bet to be fouled at least twice.
What really makes this angle appealing is the midfield battle he's walking into. Wolves are expected to deploy Joao Gomes and Andre in those central areas - two players who bring aggression and intensity as their default setting. They like to engage, they like to tackle, which usually leads to fouls on opposition central midfielders.
Sometimes the best bets are the ones that follow a familiar pattern and this looks like a spot where we could see a repeat of what landed nicely in last week's column.
Arsenal to win and under 2.5 goals at 5/2 with Sky Bet is the angle.
This combination clicked when Arsenal edged past Newcastle 1-0, and the conditions look very similar here. It's all about game state and intent. Arsenal need the win - simple as that in the title race - but they're also juggling the bigger picture with a huge European clash on the horizon against Atletico Madrid.
With that second leg looming, it wouldn't be a shock to see a controlled, professional approach rather than an all-out attacking display. Arsenal have shown they can operate like that: get in front, manage the tempo and keep things tight.
There's always a temptation to latch onto the short-priced 'banker' in these Sunday spots but sometimes the market just gets a little carried away - and that looks the case here with Bournemouth. The Cherries are being priced up as if they're taking on a relegation-bound side with nothing about them. Yet Palace are organised, they're stubborn and they don't give much away.
The draw is often the most underrated outcome in football betting markets and that's where value can creep in, especially when the numbers start to back it up. We're seeing a bit of a draw surge in the Premier League right now, with 18 of the last 49 games finishing level, that's a 37 per cent strike-rate, comfortably above the norm.
Bournemouth have drawn six of their last eight games - they're becoming specialists in not quite getting the job done. Palace, meanwhile, have racked up 10 draws from 33 matches this season. The 3/1 with Sky Bet on the draw is a fantastic bet.
When you're assessing the player markets at this stage of the season, motivation and narrative can be just as powerful as the raw numbers and this is one where everything is aligning.
Bruno Fernandes to register an assist at 6/4 with Sky Bet looks a cracking play. Fernandes is sitting on 19 Premier League assists this season - just one shy of the all-time single-season record held by Thierry Henry (2002/03) and Kevin De Bruyne (2019/20).
Watching him recently, it's obvious he's actively looking to create rather than finish moves. His first instinct in and around the box is to slide passes, pick runners, and manufacture chances. That mindset is exactly what you want when backing assist lines.
At 6/4, you're getting a playmaker in elite form, with a clear target in sight, pulling the strings in a home environment where he thrives.
Everything points towards another assist being firmly on the agenda.
If it looks like relegation season, smells like a relegation season, quacks like a relegation season then it's probably a relegation season.
The footballing gods have made up their mind on Spurs it seems. That line of thinking was rubberstamped despite the 1-0 win at Wolves where they didn't play well.
That West Ham injury-time winner was a cruel one and yet more injuries to key players in Xavi Simons, their only real creative player in form, and Dominic Solanke is making an already tough task even more difficult for Roberto De Zerbi.
But there is one place that still believes in this Tottenham team: the betting markets. And this really is great news as we can back Aston Villa at a staggering price at odds against of 21/20 with Sky Bet for the win.
The market has got too carried away by Spurs' need for the win and have glossed over the key factor in that they are an inferior team in every department.
Aston Villa at home under Unai Emery are so difficult to beat - this is a team that has beaten Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd at Villa Park this season. Beating Spurs should be a doddle.
Morgan Gibbs-White to score anytime at 100/30 with Sky Bet looks too big to ignore. The Forest playmaker is finishing the season like a man on a mission. Seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances tells you everything you need to know about the level he's operating at right now. He's playing with freedom, conviction and, most importantly, end product - something that hasn't always been associated with his game.
With an international summer on the horizon, Gibbs-White is making a very loud case to Thomas Tuchel for inclusion in England's World Cup squad. That kind of motivation can elevate a player's output and it's clear he's taking on more responsibility in the final third, getting into scoring positions and finding sublime quality at the right time.
Manchester City have built their title push on fast starts. They don't ease into games - they suffocate them from the off. The numbers are pretty striking: nine goals scored and none conceded in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season. City have been ahead at half-time 21 times in the league - six more than Arsenal, who are next on the list. Second again. That gap tells you how consistently they're getting their noses in front early and, crucially, staying there.
At 6/5 with Sky Bet for Man City to winning at half-time and full-time, you're getting a price on a pattern that's been repeating all season.
1pt treble on Jayden Bogle +2 fouls, a draw in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace & Bruno Fernandes +1 assist (20/1 with Sky Bet)
